How a pattern earns its place
- Each stock's history is cut in three, in time order: the oldest 70% to search in, the next 20% to check on, the newest 10% locked away.
- A behaviour is only recorded if it fired at least 30 times and its conservative hit-rate sits clear of how often the same thing happens anyway in that stock.
- Costs come off before anything is called profitable: about 20 bps per round trip, plus the win-rate that cost implies, plus a cushion.
- The locked 10% is opened once per tier, never to tune anything, and every opening is logged.
- Nothing is traded with real money. Every position on this site is simulated.
What this site does NOT claim
- It is not a track record. These are simulated fills, and a simulated fill is an assumption about a price somebody would have given us.
- The universe is today's list. Results are measured on instruments that are still traded now, which flatters anything on the long side (survivorship).
- Related signals are counted as if independent. When many correlated names fire together the evidence is thinner than the count suggests.
- The fill rule has not been re-settled. Every published number predates the current rule about which price a fill uses.
- Costs are the conservative fallback — statutory charges plus the full quoted spread — not a distribution measured from this system's own fills.
- The moment check is not live. Whether a real price existed at that instant is not verified until the live depth feed is wired.
Why the numbers here can move
The hunt runs continuously as more history lands, so counts grow. Anything still loading says so rather than showing a confident number.